AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn Following the Rest of the Complex Higher

July 19, 2019

Corn futures are showing 4 to 6 1/4 cent gains on Friday, trying to post a rebound to end the week. Spillover buying from soybeans and wheat is supportive, along with Fed easing talk. Total corn export commitments are 15.5% below the same week last year. Compared to the USDA projection, they are 93% complete, vs. the 102% average. Most of that lag is from unshipped sales, as accumulated exports are 84% of that projection and even with the average pace. Safras & Mercado expect the 19/20 Brazilian corn crop to total 103.97 MMT.

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.30 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.35 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.43 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.47, up 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Higher on Profit Taking Fueled By Rumors

July 19, 2019

Soybean futures are up 20 to 22 cents at midday, after showing 4 straight days of losses this week. August soybean meal is up $4.80/ton, with soy oil 46 points higher. A report from Reuters shows lower Brazilian crop quality this year with some Chinese business at risk. Rumors of improvements in the Trade War also gave the buying some fuel. Old crop US export commitments are now 105% of USDA’s projected total vs. the 103% average. Exports are 85% of that number, with the normal pace at 83%. Estimates from Safras & Mercado show expected 19/20 soybean production at a record 123.788 MMT, with acreage seen up 0.8% from last year.

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $9.03 1/4, up 22 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $9.08 3/4, up 21 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.21, up 22 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans are at $9.33, up 21 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal is at $311.80, up $4.80,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.10, up $0.46

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Bouncing After This Week’s Losses

July 19, 2019

Wheat futures are showing 7 to 13 cent gains in most contracts on Friday, after a several rounds of losses this week. Shorts are taking some of their winnings off the table ahead of the weekend. Wheat export commitments are now 22.2% larger than the same week in 2018. They are 30% of USDA’s projected total, with the average at 35% for this date. The French wheat harvest is now 33% complete, a 24% move over the past week. The French crop has been stressed by hot and dry temps, with yield estimates declining.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.06 1/2, up 13 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.43 3/4, up 11 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.32 1/2, up 7 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Slightly Higher Ahead of Reports

July 19, 2019

Live cattle futures are up a nickel to 55 cents at midday. Feeder cattle futures are up 25 to 55 cents on Friday. The biannual Cattle Inventory will be released this afternoon, along with the monthly COF report. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.01 @ $140.00 on July 17. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday morning with Choice boxes up 8 cents per cwt at $213.42 and Select boxes 63 cents higher @ $189.24. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 481,000 head through Thursday. That was up 3,000 head from the previous week and 7,000 larger than the same week last year. Cash trade this week has been around $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $107.450, up $0.050,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $108.325, up $0.075,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.025, up $0.225,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.975, up $0.550

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.850, up $0.375

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.000, up $0.275

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Higher on Friday

July 19, 2019

Lean Hog futures are trading 32.5 cents to $1.95 higher in most contracts on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another 78 cents at $77.38. The belly and butt were the only primals lower. The national average base hog value was up 22 cents on Friday at $71.91. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter is 1.820 million head. That was down 94,000 head from last week due to plant down time but 24,000 head larger than the same week last year.

AUG 19 Hogs are at $83.500, up $0.725,

OCT 19 Hogs are at $78.850, up $1.950

DEC 19 Hogs are at $76.675, up $1.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Higher at Midday

July 19, 2019

Cotton futures are trading 88 to 154 points in the green at midday. Upland cotton export commitments are now 115% of the USDA projection, with the average pace running 107%. With just under a month left in the MY, however, accumulated exports are 91% of that number , with the normal pace at 95%. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 50 points from the previous day at 73.70 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through next Thursday. This is still above the 52 cent loan rate, i.e. there is no LDP or MLG. USDA also noted that the “costs to market” adjustment for the 2019/20 crop year will be 15.20 cents/lb and will become effective for the week beginning 12:01 a.m. August 9, 2019.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 62.32, up 154 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 62.91, up 120 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 63.83, up 95 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 64.85, up 88 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com