Morning Grains Report 03/20/18
Jack Scoville of The PRICE Futures Group - InsideFutures.com - Fri Apr 13, 4:10PM CDT

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 19
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 15, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/15/2018 03/08/2018 03/16/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 245 0 48 21,071 31,311
CORN 1,409,281 1,377,244 1,357,989 21,732,957 30,282,814
FLAXSEED 0 0 1,071 4,745 23,500
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 200 0 11,581 12,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 248,263 194,539 59,977 3,429,369 3,438,423
SOYBEANS 490,536 930,100 744,061 40,219,615 45,799,822
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 443,269 428,815 650,879 19,135,024 20,714,873
Total 2,591,594 2,930,898 2,814,025 84,554,362 100,303,736
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday and Winter Wheat markets gapped lower on reports of beneficial rains in the western Great Plains. Some significant rains were seen from Kansas to the Texas Panhandle over the weekend and more are expected by the end of the week. Demand has become a problem for this market as the weekly export sales reports have been mostly sub par for many weeks. The demand needed to justify the ending stocks estimates from USDA is just not appearing, and there is some talk now that USDA will be forced to increase ending stocks estimates for the current crop in the next couple of monthly reports. US prices are too high when compared to the world competition. Wheat futures are still in a weather market, and it remains very dry in the western Great Plains. La Nina conditions are still affecting the production potential for Hard Red Winter areas, but La Nina is fading, so chances for rains should start to improve. A large part of the HRW crop is still rated in poor to very poor condition as crops start to come out of dormancy. Minneapolis prices remain weaker in part on high Canadian production and in part on ideas of increased planted area for Spring Wheat in the US this coming season. Black Sea prices remain firm.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see light precipitation on Thursday, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after some light precipitation today. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 446 May. Support is at 450, 448, and 446 May, with resistance at 457, 461, and 465 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 470, 468, and 456 May, with resistance at 476, 481, and 483 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 594 and 572 May. Support is at 594, 591, and 588 May, and resistance is at 608, 613, and 618 May.

RICE: Rice was lower on Monday on speculative and fund related selling that was seen in most markets. Any move lower might not last long and go very deep as the fundamental situation still remains bullish in the eyes of most analysts. The US cash market bids remain generally strong amid tight supplies, but trading is reported to be quiet. Little is offered and mills are not really pushing the price higher, but higher prices are being paid. Reports indicate that there is a limited amount of Rice still owned by farmers, so commercials are raising bids to try to buy what is left. The focus is turning to the end of the month and the quarterly stocks reports and the prospective plantings reports. The stocks on and off farm should be very low. Prospective plantings should not show major increases in planted area as other crops are still more profitable to plant. Planting is underway in Texas and southern Louisiana.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1225, 1222, and 1219 May, with resistance at 1250, 1254, and 1260 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday and trends are down on the daily charts. The market might have entered a short-term corrective phase down. Corn fell in sympathy with Soybeans and Wheat as those markets reacted to better than expected rains in Argentina and the western Great Plains. Funds were significant sellers and were also reacting to the sharply lower stock market. In addition, traders are talking about the potential for a trade war started by President Trump. Corn is a demand market with reasons to move higher over time, but also must fight the big supplies still located in the US. Ethanol and export demand remain very strong. More demand is also possible due to the problems in South America due to the weather. Brazil is not offering Corn and appears to be sold out, while Argentina is struggling with dry weather problems of its own that are being caused by La Nina. Brazil has been too wet in central and northern areas to get the Safrinha Corn planted well. Rains feel in much of Argentina over the weekend, but it is too late to help Corn now. The market focus will turn now to the end of the month and the planting intentions reports along with the quarterly stocks reports. Traders expect planted area to be reduced for Corn due to costs of production and the lower prices that were seen until recently. The quarterly stocks will show the domestic demand and especially the feed demand that has been a big question for the trade as no one knows for sure how strong feed demand has been in recent months.
Overnight News: Peru bought 110,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 368 and 363 May. Support is at 375, 372, and 370 May, and resistance is at 378, 382, and 387 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 229 May. Support is at 234, 232, and 229 May, and resistance is at 242, 245, and 247 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on rains in Argentina and demand concerns coming from the threat of tariffs on China made by President Trump. Soybean Oil closed firm. Argentina is getting some rains, but producers say that the rains are arriving too late to do much good. Still, the rain has been significant and has fallen in areas that have been very dry for months. Futures prices remain supported due to high prices in South America that have come from the drought in Argentina. The rains will not be enough to change the overall perspective of significant production losses for the country. Some demand is shifting to the US as Argentine cash market offers are very high-priced and Brazil ports are operating at or near capacity already. The US is the new place to turn for Soybeans and products, and they are available and getting bought as the very strong export sales report showed last week. Strong domestic demand has helped support Soybeans and Soybean Meal.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1020 and 998 May. Support is at 1023, 1016, and 1013 May, and resistance is at 1032, 1041, and 1050 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 350.00 and 347.00 May. Support is at 357.00, 352.00, and 360.00 May, and resistance is at 370.00, 380.00, and 387.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3120 and 3020 May. Support is at 3170, 3150, and 3130 May, with resistance at 3250, 3300, and 3350 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on Chicago. Charts show that trends are mixed. The market is watching Brazil and Argentina and vegetable oils markets worldwide. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was higher on hopes for better demand. SGS showed that export demand did recover and is well ahead of last month. Indian buyers are now reported to be seeking to cancel about 100,000 tons in purchases after the government raised import tariffs in a big way. China is likely to import less due to big soybeans imports. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 926,185 tons, from 815, 183 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 517.00, 515.00, and 510.00 May, with resistance at 521.00, 525.00, and 526.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2350 and 2240 June. Support is at 2400, 2370, and 2350 June, with resistance at 2450, 2470, and 2490 June.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through the week, although precipitation is likely on Friday and Saturday, Temperatures mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 43 May 160 May 63 May 27-May 15-May
April 48 May 60 May 32 May
May 48 May 60 May 40 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April plus 4 May
May 84 May minus 6 May
June 90 July minus 10 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Argentina Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn Wheat-12%
Upriver Upriver Upriver
May plus 110 Mar $167.00
June minus 17 Jan plus 115 Mar $168.00
July minus 18 Mar plus 120 Mar $173.00

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 19
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 506.10 up 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 532.70 dn 5.40
2 Can 519.70 dn 5.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 552.70 dn 5.40
2 Can 539.70 dn 5.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 240.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 239.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 655.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 647.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 655.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 647.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,450 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 251.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.9180)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 216,458 lots, or 8.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,710 3,737 3,683 3,707 3,713 3,710 -3 189,082 169,832
Jul-18 – – – 3,739 3,739 3,739 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,760 3,769 3,733 3,751 3,764 3,751 -13 27,076 60,730
Nov-18 – – – 3,798 3,811 3,798 -13 0 2
Jan-19 3,820 3,830 3,799 3,817 3,836 3,813 -23 288 3,298
Mar-19 – – – 3,804 3,804 3,804 0 0 2
May-19 3,870 3,875 3,861 3,875 3,890 3,865 -25 12 140
Jul-19 – – – 3,840 3,864 3,840 -24 0 2
Sep-19 – – – 3,910 3,910 3,910 0 0 8
Corn
Turnover: 934,964 lots, or 16.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,814 1,815 1,805 1,810 1,818 1,809 -9 214,980 555,064
Jul-18 1,780 1,781 1,758 1,766 1,781 1,768 -13 505,648 411,138
Sep-18 1,766 1,768 1,755 1,760 1,767 1,759 -8 201,078 777,814
Nov-18 1,770 1,776 1,767 1,772 1,775 1,770 -5 142 802
Jan-19 1,780 1,781 1,775 1,778 1,782 1,777 -5 12,614 95,670
Mar-19 1,785 1,788 1,783 1,785 1,785 1,785 0 502 780
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,939,478 lots, or 57.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,019 3,023 2,996 3,008 3,043 3,008 -35 664,008 1,251,908
Jul-18 3,002 3,005 2,975 2,988 3,025 2,990 -35 264,470 277,414
Aug-18 2,981 2,996 2,970 2,986 3,009 2,982 -27 114 402
Sep-18 2,987 2,993 2,964 2,979 3,011 2,978 -33 964,638 2,065,008
Nov-18 2,967 2,971 2,948 2,968 2,979 2,962 -17 242 786
Dec-18 2,951 2,951 2,928 2,928 2,943 2,938 -5 18 114
Jan-19 2,941 2,945 2,913 2,933 2,953 2,929 -24 45,864 277,534
Mar-19 2,925 2,928 2,905 2,920 2,943 2,920 -23 124 568
Palm Oil
Turnover: 498,540 lots, or 25.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,110 5,110 5,110 0 0 10
May-18 5,102 5,146 5,054 5,130 5,094 5,092 -2 344,162 299,704
Jun-18 – – – 5,216 5,216 5,216 0 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,234 5,234 5,234 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,162 5,162 5,162 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,126 5,136 5,078 5,126 5,114 5,104 -10 149,874 324,344
Oct-18 – – – 5,152 5,152 5,152 0 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,186 5,186 5,186 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,254 5,254 5,254 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,138 5,142 5,090 5,128 5,122 5,116 -6 4,504 37,900
Feb-19 – – – 5,128 5,128 5,128 0 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,158 5,158 5,158 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 531,488 lots, or 30.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,690 5,692 5,606 5,660 5,674 5,644 -30 330,320 532,542
Jul-18 – – – 5,818 5,818 5,818 0 0 56
Aug-18 – – – 5,830 5,830 5,830 0 0 14
Sep-18 5,830 5,838 5,758 5,808 5,824 5,790 -34 197,268 452,346
Nov-18 5,902 5,902 5,900 5,900 5,978 5,900 -78 6 38
Dec-18 – – – 6,014 6,014 6,014 0 0 4
Jan-19 5,972 5,974 5,900 5,950 5,958 5,930 -28 3,894 35,738
Mar-19 – – – 5,998 5,998 5,998 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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